Friday, December 9, 2011
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Surprising Trends of NHL Over/Under Scoring Lines
If you’ve ever bet on sports you know the thrill and you get why people do it. Often times you don’t even like the team you’re betting on but for the sake of your wager you cheer like it’s no ones business. The elements of a good sports bet are gathered from an array of sources. The ingredients of a typical wager generally consist of unequal portions gut instinct, expert analysis, inside tips, and a splash of greed from wanting to hit the long odds.
One realm of sports betting that has had some interesting trends lately is the Over/Under bets for NHL games. For anyone who has followed the game over the past few decades, it is clear that scoring averages have decreased since the barn-burner days of the late 80′s and early 90′s. (The graph below from QuantHockey.com demonstrates the change in scoring throughout the history of the game and its inherent changes.)
There are numerous factors that have lead to lower scoring games such as altered coaching and defensive systems, improved goaltending technique and equipment, and overall enhanced commitment to team defense.
What this all means for dedicated sports betting junkies is a lowered O/U line that has gravitated to a fairly consistent 5.5 per game.
In 2010-11 there were 5,550 total regular season goals in 1,230 games. That’s a measly 4.512 goals/game average.
With that said, we decided to delve a bit deeper to see if we could identify any trends for the 2010-11 season as well as the current 2011-12 season. What we found is quite interesting. We compared the number of games that had 6 or more goals in three different categories: Western Conference vs Western Conference games, Western Conference vs Easter Conference Games, and Eastern Conference vs Eastern Conference games.
_______________________________________________________
- The NHL season is comprised of 1230 total regular season games.
The daily breakdown is interesting here. It seems that Wednesday and Friday night games in 2010-11 showed a spike in league-wide goal scoring and in particular the Western Conference match-ups. Tuesdays and Sundays were the only days of the week when, on average, the Eastern Conference games had more overall scoring than games in the West. Travel and varying game start times seem likely causes here (guess/speculation).
Compare that to what has transpired in the first 2 months of the current 2011-12 season.
There has been a pretty obvious shift in scoring trends here.In 2010 the Western Conference games averaged higher scores than those in the East. This year it has flipped; in a big way. The scoring is up in the East and the Western conference games are more often under 6 goals. Meanwhile, cross-conference games have remained steady in terms of Over/Under outcomes.
It is still too early in the season to decipher any meaning from the day-by-day statistics as the sample sizes are too small. By around mid to late January there should be a clearer picture of what’s actually going on on a nightly basis around the NHL.
At this point in the season, however, we can clearly see the overall trend is headed towards a mirror image of last years results in terms of Over/Under results with a 5.5 total goal baseline.
It will be interesting to see if this continues for the duration of the season or if things revert back to last years tendencies. This analysis will be updated every 2 weeks.
How to use this for NHL Over/Under betting.
This information is useful as a baseline guide for what to expect when approaching Over/Under NHL bets but obviously each unique game has it’s own unique factors to consider. The data does not account for individual team scoring averages, starting goaltender changes, travel schedules, player injuries, or adjusted coaching strategies etc.
As stated above, the science of sports betting is comprised of many parts and you have to use whatever information you have to improve your chances of winning.
Good luck.
This entry was posted in Sportsbook and tagged online sports betting, sports, sports betting by Ron. Bookmark the permalink.
One realm of sports betting that has had some interesting trends lately is the Over/Under bets for NHL games. For anyone who has followed the game over the past few decades, it is clear that scoring averages have decreased since the barn-burner days of the late 80′s and early 90′s. (The graph below from QuantHockey.com demonstrates the change in scoring throughout the history of the game and its inherent changes.)
There are numerous factors that have lead to lower scoring games such as altered coaching and defensive systems, improved goaltending technique and equipment, and overall enhanced commitment to team defense.What this all means for dedicated sports betting junkies is a lowered O/U line that has gravitated to a fairly consistent 5.5 per game.
In 2010-11 there were 5,550 total regular season goals in 1,230 games. That’s a measly 4.512 goals/game average.
With that said, we decided to delve a bit deeper to see if we could identify any trends for the 2010-11 season as well as the current 2011-12 season. What we found is quite interesting. We compared the number of games that had 6 or more goals in three different categories: Western Conference vs Western Conference games, Western Conference vs Easter Conference Games, and Eastern Conference vs Eastern Conference games.
_______________________________________________________
- The NHL season is comprised of 1230 total regular season games.
- 960 games are with opponents from the same conference.
- 270 games are with opponents from opposite conferences (inter-conference games)
- Each team plays 24 Intra-Division games against teams in their division.
- Each team plays 40 games against Non-divisional, in conference opponents.
- Each team plays 18 games against opponents outside of their conference.
The daily breakdown is interesting here. It seems that Wednesday and Friday night games in 2010-11 showed a spike in league-wide goal scoring and in particular the Western Conference match-ups. Tuesdays and Sundays were the only days of the week when, on average, the Eastern Conference games had more overall scoring than games in the West. Travel and varying game start times seem likely causes here (guess/speculation).
Compare that to what has transpired in the first 2 months of the current 2011-12 season.
There has been a pretty obvious shift in scoring trends here.In 2010 the Western Conference games averaged higher scores than those in the East. This year it has flipped; in a big way. The scoring is up in the East and the Western conference games are more often under 6 goals. Meanwhile, cross-conference games have remained steady in terms of Over/Under outcomes.
It is still too early in the season to decipher any meaning from the day-by-day statistics as the sample sizes are too small. By around mid to late January there should be a clearer picture of what’s actually going on on a nightly basis around the NHL.
At this point in the season, however, we can clearly see the overall trend is headed towards a mirror image of last years results in terms of Over/Under results with a 5.5 total goal baseline.
It will be interesting to see if this continues for the duration of the season or if things revert back to last years tendencies. This analysis will be updated every 2 weeks.
How to use this for NHL Over/Under betting.
This information is useful as a baseline guide for what to expect when approaching Over/Under NHL bets but obviously each unique game has it’s own unique factors to consider. The data does not account for individual team scoring averages, starting goaltender changes, travel schedules, player injuries, or adjusted coaching strategies etc.
As stated above, the science of sports betting is comprised of many parts and you have to use whatever information you have to improve your chances of winning.
Good luck.
This entry was posted in Sportsbook and tagged online sports betting, sports, sports betting by Ron. Bookmark the permalink.
JZSports' Jake and Zack bring you the predictions for all Week 14 NFL games in just 15 minutes. Tune in, see if your team is going to win!
Listen to internet radio with jzsports on Blog Talk Radio
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Travis Beckum's awesome 64-yard touchdown to open the Giants-Packers game was a pretty phenomenal catch-and-run, and LaRod Stephens-Howling made his case with a game winning screen pass touchdown. However, when you make a catch in the NFL, and Charles Woodson gives you a pound, you deserve a little recognition.
The Giants were scrappy and stayed with the Green Bay Packers to the very end, thanks in part to Nicks' incredible one-armed grab on this corner fade in the endzone from Eli Manning, a signature pass of the Giants' quarterback.
The Giants will look to ride the momentum from their Week 13 loss-but-moral-victory against the division rival Dallas Cowboys in a titanic showdown for the NFC East.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Whether these people are born with their athletic gifts or just work consistently to achieve their goals, there is no doubt that these guys are all nuts. From a human rubber band to an epic car window leap and surfing a giant wave, at least one person in this montage is bound to amaze you. They amazed us for sure.
Everything is possible by Tixald
Saturday, December 3, 2011
In a play that is eerily reminiscent of what happened last year against the New Orleans Saints in the playoffs, Marshawn Lynch once again defies all odds with a mind-blowing touchdown run. This guy just cannot be brought down when he goes "Beast Mode", as he calls it.
It's a good nickname, because this beastly running back is pretty fun to watch in action.
And here is the play from the 2010/2011 Wild Card Game, in case you forgot....
Friday, December 2, 2011
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
In this head-scratching video, one of the tackles for Florida State University seemed to go into stasis, remaining perfectly still for the duration of the play. Despite the obvious frenzy of action going on around him, he was perfectly content to sit out the play on the field.
In a way, the feat is pretty impressive: if not for the commentary, we'd guess he was superimposed onto the replay via special effects.
Mega Botch.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Marcell Dareus, the rookie nose tackle for the Buffalo Bills is making a strong case for himself to be named the NFL Defensive Rookie of the year.
With 7 games still left to play, Dareus has been a complete impact player on the Buffalo Bills' revitalized defense, seriously improving the level of play. The Alabama product has earned respect of offensive coordinators, and rightfully so, racking up 3.5 sacks and 26 tackles halfway through the season, sparking an anemic pass rush.
If this hulking monster only recently caught your attention, or if this is the first time you're hearing of him, here's a quick explanation as to why he is as good as he's been. ESPN's Sports Science broke down Dareus prior to the 2011 NFL Draft with a series of tests, shown below.
The surpassing of Ndamukong Suh in a particular test will shock you to the core. Just watch. You'll see.
With 7 games still left to play, Dareus has been a complete impact player on the Buffalo Bills' revitalized defense, seriously improving the level of play. The Alabama product has earned respect of offensive coordinators, and rightfully so, racking up 3.5 sacks and 26 tackles halfway through the season, sparking an anemic pass rush.
If this hulking monster only recently caught your attention, or if this is the first time you're hearing of him, here's a quick explanation as to why he is as good as he's been. ESPN's Sports Science broke down Dareus prior to the 2011 NFL Draft with a series of tests, shown below.
The surpassing of Ndamukong Suh in a particular test will shock you to the core. Just watch. You'll see.
Tired of paying outrageously exorbitant prices for apparel to represent your favorite sports team? Can you even find normal shirts or jackets of your NFL or NBA club half the time? When you do, how often is the rack full of mediums and smalls? Who says only athletes can be big and tall? Us sports fans have the right to gear that fits!
If you want to rock some gear to show your fanhood without paying hundreds of dollars for an NFL jersey, and want your purchase to actually fit, KingSize Direct can fill all of your apparel needs. Isn't that a better way to find affordable fan clothes, rather than looking on auction sites for something that might have already been worn?
From Washington Redskins T-shirts, Green Bay Packers pajamas, Pittsburgh Steelers windbreakers (or our favorite, a New York Giants or Jets hoodie) to all NFL jerseys, KingSize Direct is a one-stop shop for any needs you might have for big-and-tall sports apparel. Ever been walking down the street wondering enviously where that guy got the sweet New York Giants coat? Your troubles are over thanks to KingSize.
If you're looking for big and tall to rep your favorite football or basketball team (if you still like the NBA, kudos), look no further than KingSize Direct.
The best place for NFL Jerseys.
If you want to rock some gear to show your fanhood without paying hundreds of dollars for an NFL jersey, and want your purchase to actually fit, KingSize Direct can fill all of your apparel needs. Isn't that a better way to find affordable fan clothes, rather than looking on auction sites for something that might have already been worn?
From Washington Redskins T-shirts, Green Bay Packers pajamas, Pittsburgh Steelers windbreakers (or our favorite, a New York Giants or Jets hoodie) to all NFL jerseys, KingSize Direct is a one-stop shop for any needs you might have for big-and-tall sports apparel. Ever been walking down the street wondering enviously where that guy got the sweet New York Giants coat? Your troubles are over thanks to KingSize.
If you're looking for big and tall to rep your favorite football or basketball team (if you still like the NBA, kudos), look no further than KingSize Direct.
The best place for NFL Jerseys.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Well here's an interesting sight that you certainly don't get on a daily basis in the NFL. Buffalo Bills wide receiver David Nelson scored a touchdown in the redzone during the second quarter, a standard operation.
What he did next, will be talked about for at least the rest of this week. Running all the way down to the Dallas Cowboys' sideline, Nelson ran up to his smokin' hot girlfriend, Dallas cheerleader Kelsi Reich.
After a decidedly awkward hug, Nelson plopped the game ball in the surprised bombshell's hands and trotted off to rejoin his teammates.
We're all for the expression of true love, but did Nelson stop to think that his stunt would put his hot WAG in some hot water? She didn't look too comfortable with the situation.
WE however, thought this was hilarious!
ENJOY!!
What he did next, will be talked about for at least the rest of this week. Running all the way down to the Dallas Cowboys' sideline, Nelson ran up to his smokin' hot girlfriend, Dallas cheerleader Kelsi Reich.
After a decidedly awkward hug, Nelson plopped the game ball in the surprised bombshell's hands and trotted off to rejoin his teammates.
We're all for the expression of true love, but did Nelson stop to think that his stunt would put his hot WAG in some hot water? She didn't look too comfortable with the situation.
WE however, thought this was hilarious!
ENJOY!!
Devin Hester cemented his place as the greatest return man of all time this season with a punt return against the Carolina Panthers a few weeks back.
Since then, the biggest buzz on a return play has been for Patrick Peterson's stunning OT game-winner against the St. Louis Rams Week 9. This mind-numbing play surely helped the rookie's case for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
If you think that return was slick though, have a look at this gem from Devin Hester's time at Miami...its probably safe to say none of these Duke guys got to play special teams in the NFL.
Enjoy!
Since then, the biggest buzz on a return play has been for Patrick Peterson's stunning OT game-winner against the St. Louis Rams Week 9. This mind-numbing play surely helped the rookie's case for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
If you think that return was slick though, have a look at this gem from Devin Hester's time at Miami...its probably safe to say none of these Duke guys got to play special teams in the NFL.
Enjoy!
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